A cloudy, dark, damp Halloween night

Your Halloween forecast: Mostly spooky, partly chilly, with a pinch of toil and trouble out there, maybe a few tricks as well as treats, and a shower thrown in for good measure. All boiled down to a low overnight of about 40F. Stay safe, and get me some candy! Bring it to the dungeon here, where they are holding me captive!!! HELP!

Help!

the storm winds down, we count our blessings

It couldn’t have been a much closer call, meteorologically speaking, as the stormof the century rolled inland in South Jersey, versus NYC or Long Island, where for us, it would have meant flooding rains on top of the heavy wind. But it did, and it is weakening fairly quickly, and the worst for us is over, with winds gradually abating through Wednesday. Temps will be turning cooler as well, but the risk for the occasional shower exists through Friday.

IT’S ALL ABOUT SANDY!

OBVIOUSLY, HURRICANE SANDY IS POSING A MAJOR THREAT, NOT ONLY TO US, BUT MOST OF THE MIDATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST. THE STORM WILL AFFET US THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY, PROBABLY THROUGH THURSDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY, BUT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM WILL BE THE SECOND HALF OF TOMORROW AND ALL DAY TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND HEAVY WIND ARE THE LIKELY PROBLEMATIC PARTS OF THE STORM, AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE SOME POWER OUTTAGES, TREE LIMBS, AND MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND BASEMENTS. WE WILL BE COVERING THE STORM THIS HALF HOUR, AND AS NECESSARY, THROUGH THE STORM.

HURRICANE SANDY

It’s the calm before Hurricane Sandy hits, right here…no Trick

The storm will parallel the East Coast, and then reach a “fail-safe” point Sunday night. It will be blocked to the north, and will only have options east or west. However, a huge area of High Pressure that will block it from going further north, will funnel it towards the coast because of the High’s wind circulation. This makes it very likely to have a landfall somewhere between NYC and Rhode Island, and moving inland, probably right into Central New York Monday evening and Tuesday!

Next week’s weather event could very well be the 2nd biggest story (after the election) of the year. It’s easy to roll your eyes with doubt, but I know a little something about weather…and if you’ve watched my weather for the past 15 months, you KNOW I do not hype weather…I tell it like it is and tell you what you need to know and what you need to do. I brought up the storm before it was a storm, and called it’s strength and track, right on, through today.

This one is a big storm, and it will likely directly affect us here. The worst seems to be Monday PM through all of Tuesday. The worst effects will likely be heavy wind and torrential rain. This may result in power lines and limbs down, streets out, flooding, etc. And since it will probably be raining on through Friday, this will be an ongoing problem. For all these reasons, we are pre-empting regular programming Sunday evening at 6pm, to do a HALF HOUR WEATHER SPECIAL, to prep you for the event.

Please tune in to Eyewitness News, Sunday evening, at 6pm!

The odds on Sandy directly affecting us, are going up, fast

This will become all the news this weekend, as Category 2 Hurricane Sandy, parallels the East Coast, bringing some heavy and some heavy wind, from Florida to Maine. But the computer models are becoming more focused on a landfall, somewhere between New Jersey and south Maine. The most likely area is Long Island through Rhode Island, and what is interesting to me, and important to you, is that it is expected to retain much of it’s strength and move INLAND, perhaps right through the Adirondacks, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Just so you know, an unrelated weather system will bring us some light rain Saturday night and Sunday.

But, for planning purposes, you should know that later Monday through Thursday is the window, and it may indeed last 3 days, because it will slow, once moving inland. Hurricanes have 4 threats: One is torrential rain, Two is heavy wind, Three, is tornado risk, and Four is storm surge. When you are inland (as we are), number 4 is irrelevant. I am NOT prepared to say #3 is not an issue yet, it could be an issue. But certainly sustained high wind and torrential rain would be major factors here.

Here’s the latest forecast fan of Tropical storm force effects through Sunday:

Sandy…next 3 days

A late-season hurricane may have a profound impact here, in a week

Hurricane Sandy, something I’ve talked about since Monday night, is strengthening rapidly, and is moving almost due northward. It will pummel Cuba and the Bahamas, and then parallel the U.S. coastline by Saturday through Sunday. However, there are indications that the storm may, once it reaches parallel to the Massachusetts coastline, may take a turn LEFT, to the WEST, because of it encountering a huge area of high pressure to it’s north, over Newfoundland. Highs spin clockwise, and the right to left motion at the bottom of the High would encourage whatever is left of the hurricane to move west, into us! It is a week away, and I wouldn’t bet the farm on it yet, but since Halloween is the same day as it’s expected POSSIBLE arrival, I want to get word out asap.

This is the latest storm track from the NWS:

Hurricane Sandy track

Meteors, fall foliage, near record warmth, and free shows!

This past weekend, the Orionids came to town…but you couldn’t see the meteor show, because it was too cloudy, so that’s ashame. But, there will be more shows in November 🙂 Also, the Full Harvest Moon is just a few days away (29th).

Orionids this past weekend

Fall foliage has peaked, the leaves are coming off the trees in mass, now. So, this is your last update on such.

We’ve passed peak foliage…

Later this week, expect near-record warmth! Yes, even though it has ALREADY been unseasonably warm so far, it gets warmer…for Thursday and Friday…where temps challenge 70F!

This pattern brings record warmth to us

And finally, another free Planetarium show at Oneonta is coming the 25th, this Thursday. So hit up SUNY Oneonta for the free details for this Thursday’s 7pm show!

Enjoy the planetarium show!

First flakes Friday?

Could be!

While one cold front drives in colder air tonight and Thursday, it sets us up for another one early Friday, and it looks like between the time of day, and the cool air, we stand a better than 50/50 chance to see our first flakes of the season! It won’t amount to anything, but, it would be the first! It would happen some time between the pre-dawn hours Friday until 10AM.

Foliage at it’s peek! (Or peak!)

Now’s the time to get out there, take walks, go to a hiking trail, drive north, and take in the beauty of the landscape, because it won’t get any better! Enjoy the peak of Fall Foliage in New York State! It will last about a week or 10 days, and then the first stiff wind that hits will knock all the leaves down and that’ll be it!

Time to peep!

Oh the foliage is turning fast now!

This Friday, and every Friday until the leaves are brown, I’ll be updating you on that weekend’s foliage report. Well, it’s a no doubter that, from Lake Pleasant down to Oneonta, THIS WILL be the peak weekend. The colors are here, and they are spectacular. And it looks like a GREAT mix, from red through green. So, if you are so inclined, pick a destination in central or northern New York, take a drive, and make both the trip AND the destination worthwhile!

Here’s what you can expect in many areas this weekend!