Archive for February, 2012

29
Feb
12

Things look close to on track, no surprises

The secondary storm did indeed form, and is racing out to sea this evening, but the initial one over the western Lakes will still slide through tonight and Thursday. And even though it is fizzling out with time, the moisture around it should be enough to get us to the 4-8″ range by midday Thursday. The snow tonight will be much more off and on, until that initial storm gets closer, then a bit more steady action will redevelop before or by morning. In the lulls tonight, a little freezing drizzle could fill in gaps, so be aware that slippery roads will only get more slick. Temps will hold nearly steady or rise a tad, between 30-33 all night. They shouldn’t get higher than 33F Thursday, and then fall into the 20s at night, with cloudy skies. Friday, mostly grey, a tad milder, in the upper 30s, and then some light rain enters overnight through much of Saturday. It may end as snow Saturday PM, and there will likely be a little lake effect Sunday, but less than an inch is to be expected. And temps will warm up into the mid 40s Saturday, only to fall into the 30s Sunday, and barely 30 for Monday. There appears to be a very mild stretch heading our way for midweek next week. And our daylight is in it’s most rapid increase, over 4 minutes per day now…which currently puts us at nearly 11 hours of daylight. One final climatological note; because today is Leap Year day, there are only records for this day, once every 4 years, right? One fourth of the records that another day would have. So, our “record high and low’ database is far far fewer. Which is interesting because our record high is only 37! Which ironically, is also our average high! Just a little numerical oddity there.

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28
Feb
12

Snow day coming!

Well, snow is in the forecast. Remember yesterday’s forecast? Well, I don’t want to change a thing, and feel confident that it will turn out just as forecast now, so that feels good. If you’ve forgotten, here’s the deal. Clear to partly cloudy tonight, lows in low 20s. Clouding up quick Wednesday, with snow (from south moving north) between 8 and Noon…so say maybe 11’ish for Utica, for ex. Snow through the afternoon and evening, but some freezing rain (ice) may nudge in towards Midnight, ESPECIALLY south of Utica, such as Oneonta, Sherburne, Morris, Cooperstown. Thursday morning looks like a mess, with snow, ice and rain, from north to south, winding down in the afternoon/evening. Highs then, upper 30s to 40F. Friday, mostly cloudy, and another storm, this one a warm one, moves in at night, with rain overnight into much of Saturday. Both days highs into the 40s. But stay tuned for updates on Wednesday. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued from the National Weather Service, which basically means, “Watch out, 6 inches of snow is possible in the next 36 hrs”. It will likely go to a “Warning (meaning imminent) some time tonight or early Wednesday. But the above is my forecast, and I plan to stick to it. Expect 4-8 inches….the lower amount if rain mixes inearly Thursday. but it’ll all wash away by Saturday!

27
Feb
12

The password…is “razor’s edge”

Partial clearing tonight, Tuesday should at least become partly sunny. Lows tonight near 25F, highs tomorrow near 35F. Nice, simple, easy to remember. Ok. Now comes the hard part. A pair of storms area/will be headed here Wednesday PM. One, moving into the lower Lakes, will likely fizzle out. Another will be moving up from the south. Actually, in truth, it’s more complicated. Specificially, the southern one will be a new storm that will likely form in advance of the other, and the other will “give” alot of it’s energy and mosture to the southern one. The northern one will fizzle out, likely before getting here. This means, it SHOULD fail at bringing in warmer air before the mosture arrives. Therefore, it becomes about the track of the new, southern one. If close enough, significant snow can and would fall. If too far south, we could end up with clouds, and nothing more. As it appears now, if it were tonight, I’d go with little or no snow north (Old Forge, for ex), a couple inches near the ThruWay, and maybe 4-6″ for southern parts, like Oneonta or even Cooperstown. But it isn’t now, so do not quote me there! A tiny change in track could make it a foot, or not a flake. And in fact, there may even be ice involved Wednesday night, making snow amounts irrelevant, because ice trumps snow amounts, due to it’s treacherous nature. In any event, watch Wednesday PM’s forecast, how it trends, and know it will pass by midday Thursday, regardless.

24
Feb
12

Here comes wind, which brings cold, which brings snow…

A storm moving through the St Lawrence Rivery Valley to our west will move further north into eastern Canada. The net effect is the wind, around the storm, becomes for us, west then northwest. So the wind pickss up, to 20-40 mph by early Saturday morning, and doesnt diminish till evening. This wind brings cold, where we fall to 30F by morning, and it doesnt move another degree up all day. The wind and cold mean Lake Effect kicks in, which means snow, from roughly midnight Friday night, till later Saturday afternoon. Of course Lewis County will get the most, followed by NORTHERN Herkimer County and Hamilton County. Those regions will likely receive a half foot of snow, maybe a little more. Oneida and northern Madison will get a few inches, but the effect will really winnow down towards Ilion, towards Cooperstown, towards Morris and Oneonta. It all clears up Saturday night, and Sunday looks bright, much less windy, but cold. Monday, a very weak system will bring clouds (and milder air) back, but that should clear up for a nice Tuesday. Even if I’m wrong, nothing more than flurries would occur late Sunday night or Monday morning. Worst case.

23
Feb
12

White, then wet, then white again

There’s alot going on the next couple days, so I think I’ll stick to facts and simplicity, so as not to confuse folks.

Another storm is moving through to our west tomorrow (Friday), but this one’s a little more complicated. If it were cut and dry, it’d be rain, period. But the moisture will move in so late tonight, with little wind to keep temps up, that I think it will get here as snow, after midnight. A couple inches could accumulate. Now, since there’s no school this week, not a big problem, and it will change to rain anyway near or not long after daybreak. Rainy till midday, then a break for awhile, but then tomorrow night, the backside winds get us, with some Lake effect, into Saturday. Now for those in southern Herkimer or all of Otsego Counties, no worries. For those in Lewis, Oneida, Madison, central/northern Herkimer, a couple inches could fall again. In all cases, snow and clouds will clear up Saturday night. Sunday continues to look bright, and cold.

For what it’s worth, and I’ll show this on the air tonight, February, like last November, is turning out to be very mild. With 5 days to go, we are averaging 7 degrees above “average”, which is ALOT. Records for Utica (or Rome) are so broken and some just plain missing, so much so that I have a hard time getting firm numbers from the National Weather Service, since the records don’t even exist in some cases, but suffice it to say, since the Feb average is 22, and we’re around 29, this would put us at or near record warmth territory for the month, should it hold up.

22
Feb
12

Damp, and mild, through most of Friday

Occasional rain tonight into early Thursday, then more Thursday night into most of Friday morning is the call from the Weather Center. Lows tonight, near 34F, highs Thursday and Friday in the mid 40sF. Friday evening, leftover precip will likely flash over to wet snow, and with the Lake effect overnight into Saturday, I suppose a little could accumulate, but really only for Oneida, Lewis and maybe northern Herkimer Counties. By Saturday evening, that’ll be done, and Sunday continues to look bright and (seasonably) cold. 27 days till calendar Spring, but it becomes needless to say when temps are already a month ahead of schedule, in the 40s or near 50 lately!

21
Feb
12

Light white tonight

A weak disturbance swings through tonight, maybe a coating of snow comes of it. Lows will actually not occur until early tomorrow, near 32F, because temps may climb a big through midnight tonight! (What a strange Winter, eh?). Wednesday, maybe a few early flurries, then a few sprinkles towards lunchtime, but dry afternoon. Highs near 43F. Wednesday night, a little more light stuff, but likely a mix between wet snow and light rain. That eands before sunrise Thursday, but a more significant and organized storm brings steadier rain Thursday evening into Friday morning, but as it passes, the winds around it will grab colder air in eastern Canada for a much colder Friday PM through Sunday. There will likely be at least a little Lake effect Saturday.