Archive for October, 2011

31
Oct
11

An eerie site of clouds and moon tonite!

(All of a sudden, I’m Bobby Pickett with a new version of the Monster Mash!)

An eerie sky with lots of clouds and little moon tonight, but no rain or snow in site. Temperatures will be dropping off into the mid 30s overnight. Highs tomorrow in the middle 50s, with decreasing clouds by Noon. Some very nice weather for the first couple days of November, mostly sunny later Tuesday, all day Wednesday, and though Thursday skies wuill cloud up, all three days we’ll enjoy highs in the 50s. Clouds clear up by early Friday, and another fine stretch continues through the rest of Friday through most of Sunday!

As for the Meteorology end, what we have at the jet-stream level is called a “split flow” pattern. If you have familiarity with either engineering or hydrology, you probably know what I mean. The short version is, say you put a large object in the flow of a river. What happens to the river flow? It “splits” around the object. That’s the jet stream pattern, across the eastern third of the nation. So, systems coming out of the west are forced to divide up, only to meet again out in the open Atlantic, to our east, but only after passing (missing) us. So, we only get clouds from tonight’s and from Thursday’s system, and from next Sunday night’s as well, and the colder air behind them stays mostly bottled up with the northern “branch” of flow, to out northwest. The pattern will probably hold for another couple weeks, if not more, so the only chances for “foul” weather is if a system taking one of the two branches is able to get close enough to us as it moves by.

28
Oct
11

Saturday’s coastal storm may track closer to us!

Recall all week the coastal storm I mentioned would just bring us clouds Saturday.

Well, Friday night will be quiet with increasing clouds, and lows in the 20s. This coastal storm now looks like it track some 50-100 miles closer to the coast, so that some of the fringe light snow will make it in here Saturday evening. This shouldnt be more than a little “nuisance”, with just flurries north of Rome, maybe an inch or so Utica/Clinton, Hamilton/Ilion, and 1-2″ south, like in Oneonta. Regardless, it clears out for a bright Sunday, highs near 50F. Monday, increasing clouds, but that system looks more and more innocuous, so just clouds, highs in the upper 40s. And Tuesday and Wednesday will be bright, and warmer, highs in the low 50s and upper 50s respectively!

 

But it just goes to show you, how, from 5, 4, 3 days away, a storm track change of just 50-100 miles (tiny, by meteorological standards), makes a difference in a forecast for the path of that storm.

27
Oct
11

FIRST FLAKES FLY!!!

Forecast is 100%, right on track. Snow will end early this evening, with rapid clearing by Midnight, and Friday will be fair. Saturday a coastal storm will bring more clouds, and Sunday still looks nice. Monday, a weak system will bring what looks like all snow…but just flurries…to the area, much of the day, maybe a dusting.

Important footnote: regarding his evening. Temperatures are quickly falling toward andbelow freezing this evening. This means WHATEVER moisture will be on the ground, has a chance of freezing, ergo…black ice. So be aware of this, so you are not the one caught in a fender bender because of potentially slippery conditions overnight.

If you’re into the meteorology, ss for the storm itself, it continues to move through Long Island, and away, dragging the moisture with it. Clearly, those two things I mentioned yesterday that I watch for the changeover…have indeed occurred. The “thickness” of the atmosphere between 500mb (about 18000 ft) and 1000 mb (about a 1000 feet up) has shrunk to that magical snow level of 540, and is going down. That tells me the atmosphere is cold enough throughout the column of air, for snow to fall, and survive the trip (not melt) all the way to the ground. And, the 850mb (about 1500 feet up) 32F degree isotherm has now passed through the area, meaning that air near our heads is also cold enough to support the snowflakes. The snow will shut off quickly this evening, but watch out for black ice overnight. The air behind the storm gets dry quick, so Friday looks good, albeit for some near-lake clouds (ie Lowville, or out towards Syracuse). And again, that coastal storm I’ve mentioned for days, will indeed form, and miss us Saturday, curving out to sea, leaving us with a bright Sunday.

26
Oct
11

First (and second) chance for snow, on the way!

So, for you weather enthusiasts out there, I’ve decided to “ramp up” the technical aspects of this blog, with regards to meteorological analysis. So, some of you may get it, some may not. Read at your interest, and you’re welcome to post questions or comments as you see fit. After the analysis paragraphs, will follow my forecast, as usual. And I will include links to the charts/analysis, so bookmark them. Here we go.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&page=MODEL+GUIDANCE

(click on the model you want to see, NAM, GFS. Then, click on the “4 panel charts” for the 500mb etc chart. Then, click on the hour(s) going ahead in time that you wish to see, ie, 12 hrs, 15 hrs, 18 hrs, etc)

So, a low pressure system (storm, cyclone) is moving away tonight, leaving us with mist, drizzle, and fog. However, another is headed out of eastern Colorado and across the NYS/PA border tomorrow afternoon and evening. This track is very favorable for frozen (versus liquid) precip, by the way, because it keeps us on the northern/western side of the storm, which is almost always the “cold” side a storm. Now, if the storm tracked TOO far south, we’d miss it entirely, and “precip-type” would be a moot point. But that’s for another day, and another storm. In this storm’s case, I am watching both the 500-1000mb (mb=millibar) thickness, and the 850mb 32F isotherm. What does any of that mean? Well, for simplicity sake, the closer the “thickness” is to 540 mb (or below), the closer that that layer is to being at or below freezing, throughout the layer. As for the 850mb temperature, when the 32F isotherm (in purple) is near or south of us, it indicates that falling moisture will either stay frozen, or freeze up before hitting the ground. Well, tomorrow afternoon, the line where the 540mb “thickness” is located will be racing southward from the Adirondacks towards Poughkeepsie, and the 850mb 32F line will likewise be progressing southward across the area. Both of these indicate a clear changeover from rain to snow, provided that something (rain or snow) is actually falling at that time.

We will be on the tail end of the storm by that time, but I feel strongly that several hours of wet snow will therefore fall, and with the onset of sunset, and temps falling towards 32F where you and I live (the last 6 feet of the atmosphere!), an inch or two of slushy snow will fall, and maybe accumulate on car tops, grass, etc. And, since temps will go sub-freezing at night, any remaining moisture left on the ground may freeze, ergo the risk for black ice.

So, having said all of that, here’s the forecast…

Little has changed in tomorrow’s (Thursday) storm, for me. Cloudy with
mist, drizzle, fog and an occasional shower tonight, lows near 38-40F. Light
rain tomorrow morning will gradually change over to snow, from north to south,
in the afternoon. Highs will occur in the morning, in the low-mid 40sF. So
again, it will change from rain to snow SOONER in say Rome, Remsen and Poland
(Noon to 4pm) than it will in Cooperstown, Oneonta, and Hamilton (4-7PM). A
slushy inch may accumulate Thursday evening (rooftops, trees, and grassy
surfaces…not roadways). Snow will end early evening, and Friday will be fair.
Saturday a coastal storm will bring more clouds, and Sunday still looks nice.
Monday, a weak system will bring what looks like all snow…but just
flurries…to the area, much of the day, maybe a dusting.

Important footnote: regarding tomorrow evening. Regardless of whether any snow falls or
not, regardless of how much, the temperatures will quickly fall below freezing  tomorrow evening. This means WHATEVER moisture will be on the ground, has a chance of freezing, ergo…black ice. So be aware of this, so you are not the one caught in a fender bender because of potentially slippery conditions overnight.

25
Oct
11

Snow on the way! Twice!

Ok, do I have a forecast for you. It involves snow…not once, but twice!
As I said before, we are in a “frequently stormy” pattern.
One will increase clouds tonight, with rain after 2am. Lows tonight near 40F.
Rain tomorrow morning will peeter out to drizzly type stuff in the afternoon through
the night. Highs in the upper 40sF.

The next storm will track a little further to our south, close enough for precip to hit us, but far enough for cold enough air for snow to be involved. Here’s how I see it. Rain again very early Thursday through late morning. Snow mixes in and takes over, FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, from late morning through evening. So, it will change from rain to snow SOONER in say Rome, Remsen and Poland than it will in Cooperstown, Oneonta, and Hamilton. Several inches are likely to accumulate Thursday evening (rooftops, trees, and grassy surfaces…not roadways). Snow will end at night, and Friday will be fair. Saturday a coastal storm will bring more clouds, and Sunday still looks nice. Monday, a weak system will bring what looks like all
snow…showers…to the area, much of the day, maybe a couple inches worth. So, two (good) chances for snow here, so stay in my loop! Updates as necessary!

24
Oct
11

A very active weather pattern, and some flakes may soon fly!

Rain ends early tonight, with clearing skies, and lows in the low 40s. While
Tuesday will be very pleasant, this will a stormy pattern through next
week…with light rain early Wednesday, through Noon, and again early Thursday
through Noon…and Thursday mornings could even have some wet flakes mixed in!
Highs both those days will only be in the 40s! Friday looks just fine. A coastal
storm is expected to form Friday, but should only result in clouds here for
Saturday only, with Sunday being another fine day. I do however, see the
potential for our first little snow event, Halloween night! So file that away
for now. Nothing big, but it could very well be all snow, and a couple inches.
Finally, you much check out today’s video, because I have included my WINTER
FORECAST! WooHoo! Let’s see how this turns out!

20
Oct
11

Weather gets better every day…but it’s a slow process

A few showers tonight, maybe even one or two more tomorrow, but by then, any
steady rain will be over and done with. Lows tonight in the lower 40s, and highs
Friday should reach seasonal norms, in the mid 50s. Saturday really does look
like a “ditto day”, but Sunday really does look pleasant, with mostly sunny
skies and highs in the upper 50s.