A small storm will bring rain tonight on through tmorrow morning. The rain will be far steadier NORTH of the Thruway, and on and off SOUTH of the Thruway. Not as cold tonight, near 45F for a low, and similar tomorrow, near 60F. However, I believe warmer air will push in (and more or less stay in) for Wednesday and beyond. I see warmth building in the Plains, and the jet stream winds are conducive to pushing it east, and I dont see much more than this Sunday’s brief push of cooler Canadian air to prevent the wamth from sticking around now through the season. Expect highs Wednesday through Saturday well into the 70s, and low in the 50s! For pollen sufferers, very high today, a little lower the next two days, (but still significant), then higher for the end of the week.
Archive for April, 2012
Wetter weather tonight
It’s the tale of two seasons….tonight through early Monday being late winter, and Spring thereafter. The good news about it is, if you like Spring weather, it will finally STAY Spring till further notice. As for skies, they will clear up tonight as a chilly bubble or dome of high pressure slowly sinks southward out of central Canada (a cold source region). That high will put the block on storminess over the Plains, forcing that storminess to go south of the region, protecting the weekend. Highs both weekend days will barely go above 50, and the nights will see temps fall off well down into the 20s! That’s record territory this time of the year. Come Monday, that high will be off the coast, and those same winds will become warmer southerly winds. And by then, the jet stream will also have changed, from out of Canada, to out of the west coast. So, dress for Winter through Sunday night, then you can wear shorts next week.
PS: I have a question, where I need feedback. Next week, there is a weather spotters class for the National Weather Service (NWS), in Oneonta. I have been considering the worthiness (or lack thereof) of having weather spotters in my weather-cast. As a viewer, would there be much value to you, in me adding such? Or do I cover it adequately as it is? Also, would traffic cams be of value to add to the weather-cast? Kind of like a tower-cam, but at roadside intersections? Please rsvp here your thoughts, and ask a friend to do as as well. Thanks!
A cold front is moving through, right on schedule, with rain out oahead of it for all evening, ending near 1AM (on average), and then behind it, much colder air pours in on stiff NW winds through all of Friday. In fact, Friday I would NOT be surprised to see a snow shower in the morning, and with the wind, it may briefly look quite crazy for a a few minutes. Windy and cold for Friday, highs only near 45F! The air dries out for a bright (but still cool) Saturday, highs in the low 50s. I do think clouds from the north will drift in and maybe a few sprinkles, Sunday, with similar high temps.
The GOOD news is, I still expect much warmer weather for Monday, and beyond into May. But it will be a bit of a rough ride tonight through Friday!
Just doesnt seem fair. Clouds will be breaking up this evening, (and frosty conditions will prevail!), but tomorrow morning, clouds from ANOTHER storm front will be edging in…and heavy rain will develop around lunchtime and pound the ground till like 8pm at night. So a stormy day is coming (again!) Lows tonite, near 30F, highs tomorrow near 58F.
Once this front passes, guess what? MORE cold air! Yippee! Friday will be bright, but blustery and very fool (upper 40s!), and pretty much the same for Saturday. There is a chance for a few light showers still for Sunday.
Good news? Once it begins warming up Monday, it will be Spring-like going forward. Finally.
Boy Mother Nature and baseball…two things designed to break your heart, eh?
This slow moving storm continues its jog northward, and the showers on the western side are wrapping around it to it’s south, clipping us this evening, but by Midnite, the precip will have mostly ended. I say mostly because a brief sprinkle is still possible even tomorrow, as clouds slowly break up. Lows tonight will be slightly below average, in the mid 30s, and highs tomorrow, still well below average, barely scraping 50F. A cold front (like we need more cool air!) will swing through Thursday, bringing several more hours of rain, breezy conditions, and then cooler air again for Friday.
On a good note, a storm that looked like it would bring rain Saturday night through Sunday may only bring clouds the second half of Saturday and perhaos a shower or two Sunday…not lengthy periods of rain like it looked like to me yesterday.
And finally, once that system clears the area, Spring-like weather looks like it will begin to resume…which if you recall from several weeks ago when I talked “Spring forecast”, I felt that just this sort of thing would happen the last week of April…so I’m happy to report that, for your sake (nice weather), and mine (accurate forecast!)
With rain chances tonight, Tuesday (even wet snow!), Thursday, Saturday night and Sunday…way too many rain opportunities to call it a good week of weather…unless you’re a farmer…or a fish, I suppose. The clouds and rain washes out a little meteor shower (Lyrids) tonight. Temps are going to stay well below norms as well, through early next week…only in the 40s and 50s all week and weekend. (The average high for this time of year is now about 62F.)
Which brings me to my topic tonight. Spring. We all know Winter was abnormally warm with very little snow. When I talk to people about it, and they bring up the Winter, they will almost always say, “But we’re gonna pay for it in Spring (ie alot of snow)”…and if they don’t say that, then I get…”With such a mild Winter, it’s gonna be a HOT Summer!”
The truth is, there is NOT necessarily ANY correlation between seasons. And this Spring is a perfect example. It is neither snowy (I don’t think the Valley has had a flake since February), nor is it getting “hot”. In fact, other than a handful of record warm days (long since gone), it has been stormy/wet and unseasonably cool mosto fo the time.
And I don’t see much change for another month. I think a big warm up will come in late May/June, and therefore it will get drier, but again…there is not necessarily a correlation from season to season. What’s much more important are the patterns in the atmosphere, and the cycles of several large scale events such as the Nina’s/Nino’s, and the NOA (North-Atlantic Oscillation), among others. These shift the entire patterns north and south, and have a far more dramatic effect on mid-term weather (ie, a season’s worth of weather) than anything else we know of to date.
So, expect damp, cool weather for another month, with drier and warmer conditions towards the end of Spring, my friends! It is what it is, make lemonade if wet and cool weather represents lemons to you!
Stormy weather on the horizon…
Fair tonight, fair for much of Thursday, but once it turns stormy, there’s no lookin back till Wednesday of next week! A storm moving up from the Gulf will actually get cut off by a storm moving in from the Great Lakes Thursday, and the Great Lakes storm will have very little rain within it for us, so I expect alot of clouds, but worst case…sprinkles in the afternoon. After that one passes, then the Guld storm will get it’s chance. It may bring sprinkles by Friday, but steadier rain Saturday. We might catch a break with just a heavy overcast Sunday, but Monday, more rain from it. And a cold rain at that. Expect temps to top out near 70 the next two days, but only in the 50s and even only 40s beyond!
Fair for fourty eight hours…
Other than some occasional high clouds (cirrus clouds), skies will be mostly clear tonight and tomorrow (Wed), and temps will be chilly at night, mild by day. A large and intensifying storm along the Gulf of Mexico is going to sloooooowly drift northward, and in fact, stall when it arrives. This means light rain Friday, More rain Saturday, and perhaps heavy rain Sunday and Monday, with less rain Tuesday, but even a chance for wet snow in higher elevations Tuesday! It will be a real washout from Friday through Tuesday. I just don’t see any hope at this point. So, enjoy the next 48, because after Thursday night, I make no promises about good weather till the middle part of next week!
The weekend went off as planned, and now today, we’re busting records all over the place, well into the 80s! It will NOT last though, as a cold front passes through tonight, shaving back temps 25 degrees by tomorrow. The cooler weather will prevail through the week, with sunshine Tuesday and Wednesday thanks to a nice bubble of high pressure. However, a couple storms passing through barely to our west Thursday and Friday will bring more and more clouds, and the risk for rain. Even worse, they will draw up Gulf moisture, so that by the weekend, we are going to get caught up in a developing and increasingly strong and large Gulf storm, bringing rainy, windy, cool conditions from Saturday through next Monday. It is what it is, so plan accordingly now 😦
A half-n-half weekend
just like the dairy product 🙂
High pressure moving through is responsible for the beautiful Friday, the clear night ahead (low near 32F), and the sunny start to Saturday. But since the high IS progressive (we covered that word yesterday), it will leave us in favor of a cold front approaching later in the weekend. Three things about the front. One, it will bring some showers Saturday evening, and probable Sunday afternoon too. Two, out ahead of it, warm air will stream in…highs Saturday near 65 and Sunday 70…and perhaps mid 70s for Monday. Which leads to my third point. The front appears to stall to our west…which keeps us in the warm sector ahead of it. That means temps could go way up the 70s Monday, given a little sunshine. Some cooler air will trickle in Tuesday and Wednesday, but the colder air behind the front will both fizzle out (modify) and move north back up to Canada. The rain risk is Saturday night, Sunday afternoon, Monday aftn/eve, and maybe a PM shower Tuesday PM.
But tonight will be a great star-gazing night.
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