14
May
12

We get the rain out of the way early this week

Yep, wet weather tonight through tomorrow evening. All because the cool front that passed through Sunday afternoon did get stuck just to our east, allowing a storm from the southern Plains to piggy back up along it. The heaviest rains, tonight. On and off tomorrow. Ending tomorrow evening.

On the good side, the pattern is developing where once a high pressure system gets here Thursday, it parks off the coast, and forces stormy weather to Canada, to our northwest. This means not only dry weather, but a rapid warmup over the weekend, to 80 or more 🙂

Now, back to the Boilermaker. What are the odds of rain on a particular Boilermaker day? Now, keep in mind, that could be a little drizzle until 6AM, it could be a thunderstorm which doesnt happen till 6PM. So, just because previous Boilermaker dates have had rain, doesnt mean the rain had any real effect on the event. Care to guess? The chances for rain during a given period in late Spring or Summer are about 20-25%. This is to say, that if you yourself predicted the weather for Boilermaker day, either as “Rain” or “No rain”, and you predicted “No rain” every year for say, 10 years, you would be right 8 or 9 times. Rain is much more “infrequent” than is no-rain. This of course, is an incomplete forecast, because there are other things of interest to runners and bystanders alike. How sunny/bright? That’s a huge factor for both. How much wind? Big factor for runners. How warm/cool? Runners prefer cooler weather for optimum times.

So you see, there’s more to a “useful” forecast than just “rain or no rain”. Even if you got the rain days correct, if it rained very early or very late, who really cares?

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