Forecast is 100%, right on track. Snow will end early this evening, with rapid clearing by Midnight, and Friday will be fair. Saturday a coastal storm will bring more clouds, and Sunday still looks nice. Monday, a weak system will bring what looks like all snow…but just flurries…to the area, much of the day, maybe a dusting.

Important footnote: regarding his evening. Temperatures are quickly falling toward andbelow freezing this evening. This means WHATEVER moisture will be on the ground, has a chance of freezing, ergo…black ice. So be aware of this, so you are not the one caught in a fender bender because of potentially slippery conditions overnight.

If you’re into the meteorology, ss for the storm itself, it continues to move through Long Island, and away, dragging the moisture with it. Clearly, those two things I mentioned yesterday that I watch for the changeover…have indeed occurred. The “thickness” of the atmosphere between 500mb (about 18000 ft) and 1000 mb (about a 1000 feet up) has shrunk to that magical snow level of 540, and is going down. That tells me the atmosphere is cold enough throughout the column of air, for snow to fall, and survive the trip (not melt) all the way to the ground. And, the 850mb (about 1500 feet up) 32F degree isotherm has now passed through the area, meaning that air near our heads is also cold enough to support the snowflakes. The snow will shut off quickly this evening, but watch out for black ice overnight. The air behind the storm gets dry quick, so Friday looks good, albeit for some near-lake clouds (ie Lowville, or out towards Syracuse). And again, that coastal storm I’ve mentioned for days, will indeed form, and miss us Saturday, curving out to sea, leaving us with a bright Sunday.


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